EUROPEAN GAS RESERVES AT MAXIMUM ANTICIPATE STABLE PRICES FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR

SOURCE: oil and gas

The reserves are close to 60% of their capacity with most of the heating already turned off. This mattress reduces import needs in the coming months.

The forecasts of the British consultancy ICIS, specialized in raw materials, also point to a relatively calm second half of the year in prices. Its head of natural gas analysis, Tom Marzec-Manser, projects an average of just over 28 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) in the Dutch TTF market, which serves as a reference for the entire Old Continent. Very close to the current 26 euros and, also, one step away from the annual minimum of 23 euros, which was reached in February.

For next winter, when the turning on of the heaters once again tightens the seams of the market, its forecast is around 33 euros. Less than last winter. Compared to Brussels' objective that the Member States reach 90% of their deposits by the beginning of November, Marzec-Manser believes that the average of the Twenty-seven and the United Kingdom will reach 95% much sooner: at the beginning of September.

Apart from the arrivals by tube from Norway, one of the great wild cards with which Europe has overcome the crisis, they will remain the first source of gas during the summer season despite the scheduled maintenance in the final stretch of the summer, the analyst ICIS assumes that gas pipelines arriving from Russia will remain at low levels, and that LNG will continue to produce “significant” figures, especially that coming from the United States.

LNG and Norway aside, the other key element in the European puzzle has been demand. After the drastic decline of the last two years, especially in the case of industry, the forecasts of the main analysis houses point to manufacturing consumption in the coming months one fifth lower than the average of the five years prior to the outbreak. of war (2017-2021).

“Consumption for electricity generation will also be moderate, due to the improvement in renewable and nuclear production.”